Lots of numbers these days. After I did the Statistical Recap of the series against the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday, here are the numbers for the series against the Los Angeles Lakers. A few comments about the procedure first because I changed it slightly compared to the Statistical Roundup of the first round:
The "Starting Lineups" are actually the two most important lineups for both teams. There is still an issue with the sample size of the Mavericks starting unit. They played 207 possessions now. The Lakers starting unit has 1589. Also there is one important lineup for both teams that should be somehow included in the numbers: The 6th-man lineups consisting of Jason Terry for DeShawn Stevenson and Lamar Odom for Andrew Bynum. Both are not bench lineups with my definition because they consist of only one bench player and are also not the starting lineups. So I decided two include them into the "Starting Lineup" comparison.
Here we go:
| Overall | DAL | Opp | LAL | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 109.85 | 105.12 | 111.13 | 104.34 | 1.03 |
| Points in the Paint pp100 | 40.54 | 46.12 | 48.80 | 43.65 | 5.36 |
| Points off Turnovers pp100 | 16.73 | 16.49 | 16.21 | 16.62 | 0.32 |
| Fastbreak Points pp100 | 15.75 | 15.20 | 12.46 | 14.77 | 1.43 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 86.41 | 88.77 | 89.95 | 88.90 | 0.46 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 40.91 | 39.97 | 41.64 | 40.47 | 0.34 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 47.35% | 45.03% | 46.29% | 43.80% | 0.08% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 23.63 | 19.77 | 19.69 | 22.75 | 3.02 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 8.65 | 6.73 | 6.96 | 7.98 | 1.13 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 36.58% | 34.05% | 35.32% | 33.41% | 0.31% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 24.96 | 24.51 | 26.76 | 23.61 | 2.03 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 19.38 | 18.44 | 20.89 | 18.19 | 1.48 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 77.64% | 75.24% | 78.07% | 76.33% | 0.33% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 52.35% | 48.82% | 50.16% | 47.79% | 0.58% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 56.40% | 52.80% | 54.62% | 51.56% | 0.27% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 22.43% | 20.78% | 23.22% | 18.60% | 1.49% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 74.89% | 75.60% | 72.67% | 70.62% | 1.38% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 24.40% | 25.11% | 29.38% | 27.33% | 1.38% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.36 | 8.22 | 7.95 | 7.60 | 0.49 |
| Turnover Percentage | 15.23% | 14.80% | 14.36% | 15.07% | 0.49% |
| Assist Percentage | 63.24% | 56.06% | 57.45% | 60.78% | 5.26% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.70 | 1.51 | 1.67 | 1.63 | 0.08 |
| Block Percentage | 5.42% | 4.72% | 6.34% | 5.36% | 0.14% |
| Fouls pp100 | 21.16 | 22.18 | 20.99 | 22.07 | 0.49 |
As expected the overall comparison slightly favors the Lakers. They own the edge in rebounding, getting to the line and turnovers while the Mavericks take the overall shooting categories and ball handling in general because of the great advantage in the ball sharing category (Assists). Also L.A. should have a huge advantage in Points-in-the-Paint with their big front line.
| Starting Lineup | DAL | Opp | LAL | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 120.87 | 99.79 | 114.75 | 102.51 | 4.42 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 83.06 | 90.03 | 92.11 | 92.12 | 3.48 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 41.22 | 36.73 | 44.27 | 40.86 | 0.54 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 49.67% | 40.79% | 48.06% | 44.35% | 2.59% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 19.84 | 22 | 16.19 | 20.05 | 0.85 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 8.37 | 6.97 | 6.19 | 6.73 | 0.97 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 42.21% | 31.00% | 38.38% | 33.37% | 3.10% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 35.02 | 25.88 | 25.55 | 18.36 | 0.98 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 30.06 | 19.37 | 20.03 | 14.07 | 2.37 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 83.85% | 74.31% | 78.23% | 76.62% | 3.96% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 54.70% | 44.69% | 51.37% | 48.01% | 3.32% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 61.27% | 49.21% | 51.42% | 51.15% | 5.90% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 36.87% | 21.63% | 21.74% | 15.28% | 4.39% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 74.26% | 70.75% | 73.28% | 69.15% | 0.31% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 29.26% | 25.74% | 30.85% | 26.72% | 0.31% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.29 | 8.83 | 8.51 | 7.31 | 1.37 |
| Turnover Percentage | 16.12% | 14.10% | 13.64% | 15.01% | 1.70% |
| Assist Percentage | 64.66% | 56.08% | 55.80% | 62.75% | 7.77% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.66 | 1.46 | 1.81 | 1.71 | 0.05 |
| Block Percentage | 5.18% | 4.46% | 6.47% | 5.33% | 0.21% |
| Fouls pp100 | 21.7 | 27.74 | 18.94 | 24.04 | 0.47 |
That surprised me. Have been talking a lot about the Mavericks starting unit which owned a negative Efficiency Differential throughout the first round. Note that both the starting unit and the 6th-man unit are included here and that these are the combined numbers from the regular season and the playoffs because I wasn't comfortable using the small sample size of the first round.
Overall advantage goes to the Mavericks. They once again take the shooting categories but also own the advantages in all ball handling and free throw categories. Lakers still are projected to have the advantage in rebounding. I originally thought that this should go L.A.'s way. Instead the Mavericks are projected to take a 4.42 advantage in Efficiency Differential. I am really intrigued how that will play out.
| Top5 Bench Lineups | DAL | Opp | LAL | Opp | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiencies | 116.44 | 107.82 | 108.68 | 102.80 | 1.37 |
| Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 86.77 | 87.66 | 89.39 | 90.84 | 0.28 |
| Field Goals Made pp100 | 44.67 | 40.68 | 39.85 | 37.95 | 1.05 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 51.45% | 46.41% | 44.71% | 41.91% | 1.12% |
| 3-Field Goals Attempted pp100 | 20.87 | 18.82 | 23.82 | 23.28 | 0.76 |
| 3-Field Goals Made pp100 | 8.44 | 6.66 | 7.88 | 8.42 | 1.16 |
| 3-Field Goal Percentage | 40.33% | 35.48% | 33.03% | 36.74% | 4.27% |
| Free Throws Attempted pp100 | 25.05 | 26.73 | 26.99 | 23.64 | 2.52 |
| Free Throws Made pp100 | 18.65 | 19.81 | 21.10 | 18.48 | 1.89 |
| Free Throw Percentage | 73.56% | 73.70% | 78.33% | 76.71% | 0.88% |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | 56.31% | 46.41% | 49.15% | 46.58% | 3.66% |
| True Shooting Percentage | 59.53% | 50.21% | 53.74% | 50.82% | 3.20% |
| Free Throws / Field Goals Attempted | 21.91% | 21.91% | 23.75% | 20.60% | 1.58% |
| Defensive Rebounding Percentage | 72.69% | 74.61% | 72.00% | 71.68% | 1.13% |
| Offensive Rebounding Percentage | 25.39% | 27.31% | 28.32% | 28.00% | 1.13% |
| Steals pp100 | 7.10 | 8.17 | 7.07 | 8.60 | 0.23 |
| Turnover Percentage | 14.48% | 15.53% | 15.22% | 15.13% | 0.57% |
| Assist Percentage | 60.42% | 59.02% | 61.18% | 61.56% | 0.89% |
| Assist/Turnover-Ratio | 1.93 | 1.56 | 1.65 | 1.62 | 0.17 |
| Block Percentage | 5.89% | 5.25% | 6.18% | 5.47% | 0.04% |
| Fouls pp100 | 22.20 | 24.16 | 24.45 | 21.92 | 2.25 |
This was about to be expected. Bench play goes the Mavs way. The big picture doesn't change. Rebounding and creating foul shots is Lakers territory, shooting and ball handling the Mavericks.
Overall I can't really believe this is the blueprint of how the series will play out. I think we'll still struggle with our starting unit and right now Odom should have the advantage in the 6th-man battle. Both Chandler and Terry stated to be highly motivated though and they will have to step up big time. The Lakers bench really doesn't concern me that much. I think it could be an easier series for Barea on the offensive end and you should also closely watch Roddy as the Lakers had trouble with speedy guards all season long. The odds are favoring the Lakers but some some statisticians agree that the Mavs have a shot in the series. BBRef projects a 50:50 series based on their Post-Deadline ratings with the only advantage for the Lakers being home court. So bring it on!
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