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Sunday, December 19, 2010

Just one more day remaining before the big season finale on “Survivor Nicaragua,” and it’s still tough to predict who will end up winning the million-dollar prize. That’s because there are still two more immunity challenges and two more tribal councils left before the Final 3 is finalized. (The finale airs 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. Sunday on CBS)
Last season (“Heroes vs. Villains”), I was almost certain Parvati Shallow had the prize locked up. Parvati was a great strategic player, super-tough in physical challenges and, even though everyone knew she was sneaky, she knew how to work her charm. It was clear Russell Hantz was hated by too many players to win, and I never thought Sandra Diaz-Twine would have a shot over Parvati.
But Sandra won with a 6-3 vote, becoming the only Survivor contestant ever to win a million bucks twice. So remember, anything could happen. The person who outplays and outwits everyone else doesn’t always outlast them. Sometimes a little luck is needed, and sometimes the reasoning of the jury members doesn’t make any sense.
If Chase makes it to the Final 3 tomorrow, don’t be surprised if angry Jane forgives him and votes for her "Carolina homeboy." Anything could happen. According to our Survivor poll (which is still active), as of early this morning, most of our readers think Fabio will win the title, even though he would have to win the final two immunity challenges Sunday night to stay in contention.
CBS has confirmed there will be three people sitting at the final tribal council. So the recent Survivor trend continues.
I haven't changed my mind over the past couple of days, so I’ll restate what I wrote in my recap after Wednesday night’s episode:
I think Holly or Fabio are in the best position to win IF they make it to the Final 3.
(I like to root for underdogs, so I’m personally pulling for Fabio to pull off an upset.)
• HOLLY -- Right now, Holly seems like a lock for the Final 3, but…. You have to wonder if Chase and Sash will turn on her the same way they turned on Jane. Holly has very few enemies, so she would be in a better position to win a million bucks than they would. So Holly needs to work her butt off and win those final two challenges to capture the title. FABIO -- If Fabio happens to pull off a miracle by winning the final two immunity challenges, or if he somehow manages to convince Chase and Sash to get rid of Holly, he will be in a very good spot. He is probably the most likeable contestant this season because of his laid-back personality and goofy antics. Everyone thinks he’s dumber than he really is, but he could be the biggest threat to win the whole thing. Everyone was worried about Jane. They really should be worried about Fabio.
• CHASE -- Up until last night, I thought Chase had the best shot at winning the million bucks. He had a solid alliance, and he knew how to socialize with everyone. But he back-stabbed his buddy Brenda several weeks ago, he alienated too many other people during recent weeks by lying to their faces or making false promises, and Jane is very bitter. She may be leading the campaign against him if he makes it to the Final 3. SASH -- Even if Sash makes it to the Final 3, he has only a slight chance of winning. Everyone knows he's a snake, and no one trusts him. He may be a great strategist (just like Russell Hantz), but Sash doesn't know how to play the social part of the game. (just like Russell Hantz). There's something about Sash that turns people off. Maybe it's his shifty eyes. Maybe it's his devious smile. Maybe it's his lack of emotion. (I don't think he shed one tear last night when he saw his mom.) I just can't see this guy getting enough votes to win.
• DAN -- Dan really has no shot of winning. He’s the weakest player at challenges, he’s in the minority alliance, and even if he happens to be dragged along to the Final 3, he would have no good arguments to present to the jury.
(“I was the weakest player in Survivor history. All I did at camp was sleep. Oh, and did I tell you, I’m a very wealthy guy. I own a bunch of homes and fancy sports cars. I even brought a pair of $1,600 alligator shoes to this island. I don’t care if those shoes get ruined. I have 100 more pairs at home. I deserve a million bucks. Please vote for me.”)
ALL-MALE FINAL 4?
I did some research last night, because I couldn’t remember if there’s ever been a Final 4 in Survivor history with all guys. There hasn’t.
Chase, Sash, Fabio and Dan have an outside shot at making that happen Sunday night in the season finale. But that would mean Holly would be booted before one of the guys. I just don’t see that happening. If Holly gets booted in the Final 4, that would set up an all-male Final 3. That’s never happened in Survivor history.

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